Buy Moment for PLUG Again (Finally)?
As those who have read past posts will know, the ill-timed fade of Plug Power, Inc. stock has been a major drag on my little fund's performance, although, because I have honestly just been avoiding the subject, the reader my not be conscious of how present its performance is on an everyday basis in my thinking surrounding the entire project.
I bought PLUG stock in April of last year, as I was trying to turn my awful, dead end job's insufficient pay into, well, anything. The pandemic was accelerating, Donald Trump was actually not doing the wartime president thing, so there seemed a good chance he really would lose in November. Yes, I am sorry to say that my original (very, very good) bet on the stock when it was still at 'penny' valuation was based on a stock-futures-level of confidence that politics and branding cannot overcome political science. It would not have been possible to recapitulate my thought process on this stock if you could never have predicted in April of 2020 that a.) the pandemic would get as bad as it did, and/or b.) that Donald Trump would lose reelection during a national crisis. Exclusively for the purposes of gratuitously taking a shot at the man, I am delighted to point out that this was an unprecedented political humiliation. That, perhaps, is the only superlative I can attach to his presidency, because he was frankly not even effective enough to have been the worst or most dangerous.
That was fun. So, I bought in at four dollars and a quarter, and then bought more at $26. From there, it went to $75, faded back to about $63 and I bought some for the fund's inaugural position in the hopes it would hold onto its value until the enthusiasm from opportunities afforded through the upcoming infrastructure bill began to lift it. Instead, a bunch of pretty obviously bad money selloffs took place, as if a Democrat were not the President and there were a realistic chance of oil trading above $70 again. It is 2021. How much can you even scare up prices before...oh yeah, Plug Power has a solution.
So the price did not find another 'support' level, a term I have only picked up myself in reading these financial columns, until it reached $27 again. Support means the price where market pressures in both directions create sufficient buoyancy to hold the price at near even for a distinguishable period. A falling price slows and stops falling, a rising stock completes its advance and does not fade, that is 'support.'
The price has languished there, not fading further as it would have done if there was any substance to the cautious tax-refiling news I relayed the last time I had sufficient control of my stomach bile to mention the stock. It has not, however, regained any of the air let out of it by the...for reasons that do not objectively make sense Wall Street traders and like-minds attach hope and nostalgia to the 20th century oil economy, so it is has essentially been a wishful, hopeful bear-market against green energy, electric vehicles, tech in general and pandemic winners.
It is all, clearly, bad money. I mean, that is the list of 30-day losers. It's counter-rational, with the Democratic president's infrastructure bill concurrently moving through committee, which likely means that there is 'bounce' in the reversal, i.e. when the fundamentals become so obvious that even the wishful cannot keep betting against it, there will be added momentum, perhaps resulting in a spike and fade to 'support' (which we can reasonably expect to be at $65-$75 again), or, if we are lucky, another level of support can be found. If I had to bet, I would say that next level is to high, maybe $115, to reach in the rebound here, which I do not expect to be sudden, but steady, over some weeks.
Nevertheless, the news is turning for the better for PLUG stock. Their tax revision went off as projected, without fiscal effect, and prices have edged upward three days straight. From very near slipping over the edge of this support level ($23), it is $27 again now, 10:15 pst Tuesday. Other watchers are in agreement (though I have not linked an opinion from Motley Fool that is less optimistic) and I would put a confident buy marker on the stock, for those who have free capital:
For myself, I am hoping for a steady rise, at least as far as $50, because I'd like to see the momentum carry it all the way back to even YTD, whereas a large one-day jump in the price over the next week would put in mind to expect a stepped, rather than a steady recovery of the price.
Cheers and happy hunting!
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