Coinbase, Pt. 2

<<edit: AKA: "what this guy said":

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-16/coinbase-slips-as-stock-seeks-to-establish-level-after-listing?srnd=cryptocurrencies>>

So...

I know! I know, I know, I know, I know, I know. We just lost a good bit on this stock, why on earth would we be thinking about going in for another round?

Well. COIN, Coinbase Inc., closed Thurday, the day after its debut, flat. $322 was the number, just slightly higher than its lowest point, $321. It closed Friday at $344. If it only returns to its Wednesday peak, that mythic $422 pricing that I saw and, in fairness, had no real way, nor sufficient experience to think it would be the peak, but nevertheless missed...if it only returns to that price, a reasonable enough expectation, though perhaps ten percent short of that is more realistic, then we are talking about quite a tidy profit.

Let's use $380, which I called more realistic, but could also be called 'conservative,' because, as I've noted before, the peak, trough and steady climb pattern is a familiar one with IPOs. From $344, to $380, that's 10% on its own. Our conservative estimate is a 10% rise over the next six months, and a perfectly possible outcome is twice that or more.

Furthermore, look at the industry the business is in, cryptocurrency, which has, in really just the last month's time just established a level of legitimacy that would likely weather some systemic shocks, like an isolated fraud scandal, that it would not have been able to survive in the same way three months ago. I am very comfortable putting our money back into the company, now that some of the foam has blown off. In fact, I'm eager.

We must obviously check back with this intuitive sensation as things develop, and I will add an edit on Monday with my buy price, assuming it is still in range.

In the meantime, I should take some time out to discuss some of our other watchlist stocks and current positions. Snapchat, which we bought, then moved out of our tracked fund, and eventually sold at a neat profit on Wednesday in order to fund our IPO moves, has seen some good news from another predictive analyst, sending its price for a small jump.

We cannot say, yet, whether this is a trending return to price growth, or merely the buoy against the down-pressure of the clouding outlook. We are, of course, curious (interested may be too strong a word, because we had our reasons for selling) where the price goes in the next few months, and overall, of course, though we must always be conscious that our money is limited, so we are looking for best investment opportunities, not only good ones.

Bumble, which we've discussed, looks stuck in the $60 valuation range, which means that we've taken quite a bath and little sign the money will come back soon. I am currently looking for other opportunities for this money, which is in my private portfolio.

And finally, Chinese car makers took a beating as prospects for an imminent trade deal clouded amid bombastic rhetoric from both sides. I say both sides, but obviously the U.S. is merely observing factual circumstances that China is either disadvantaged by or culpable for, and China is spouting inanities and specious counter-allegations to create confusion. This is, however, utterly normal for a hegemon and a regional power, discontented to be subalterned.

Unless actual conflict breaks out, for example a full-blown proxy war of the sort that might occur again if the Korean regimes came to blows again, or perhaps something in Vietnam or Thailand, a deal will eventually be struck, it will be signed by a Democratic U.S. president, which means that it will be of value to both countries and therefore will survive, and trade with China will increase drastically.

Frankly, I mark this a 'buy' opportunity for these stocks, as there will be a pop whenever the deal is finally reached (or leaks). We currently hold Li Auto, NIO and Xpeng, but I may buy more with the Bumble funds.

Finally, I am looking at the list of fund stocks and I notice how badly I have exposed the group to negative developments in the auto industry. This obviously, was not intentional, and was driven by the tech massacre, which led us tp pare away more diversified stocks that were more exposed to the winds of that moment. It is, as noted, a down time for this sector, not only because of China trade worries, but also the issues of smartchip supplies. However, when there is money to be moved, whether it is better times or because Chinese auto continues to be cloudy, we will be sure to branch out again.