Reelin' it In - Tesla LFG!

<<Oops, I never published this...>>

Tesla is coming back to us folks. No. The news inside the company hasn't really changed, But it has been put in perspective by news from Volkswagen, who sell a quarter of the electric vehicles in Europe.

Economists and traders are self-aggrandizing, but then, having insider experience on the pure skill of squeezing money out of the market's tides is probably as empowering a feeling as pulling electrical power directly from the waves would be. Regardless, their terminology for things often overrepresents the actual degree of influence the thing represents.

At the moment, I'm referring to the term investors use for sellers' positioning in a certain market, that is, what percentage of a market's sales their product accounts for. The term, 'control,' suggests that previous sales numbers will recapitulate themselves almost as an inevitability, a durable number against which predictive calculations may be made.

It is true enough that, at the scale of sales numbers we are discussing when we are talking about a middle- to higher-capitalized company on the American stock exchanges, the variations are closer to the statistical margin of error than those of a small business, but the practice is still hyperbolic and magnifies the delusions of grandeur that investors carry about themselves.

The bottom line is that Europe is the second biggest market for EV sales, after China. Of course, that phrasing does the same thing I just highlighted, do you see it? Is the second biggest market. Is that a prediction for the next year's sales? A statement of todays present sales numbers? No, it predicts them closely enough to be getting on with, but it is actually a reflection of past numbers, so it is actually counting unhatched chickens or asking horses to push carts or something like that, but the statistics support it so whatever.

Anyways, VW 'controls' 25% market-share in Europe, number two sales worldwide, and just announced a bid to become the biggest car-battery maker with six new factories. What does that mean for Tesla?

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So, why is Tesla stock cooling off?

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I mean, its cooling because the enthusiastic money that was only pumping Tesla up like Gamestop stock is moving over to VW and finding other directions to go. But the reason we wanted to be in on Tesla was not because we think its going to grow ten thousand percent this week, its because we expect it to gain perhaps as much as a thousand percent over the next three to five years. That's spectacular money, and we don't need to bother about calling the top without knowing what the limiting factors are.

But what about VW? We don't want to be in on that too?

We've got $12,000. Actually, $12,800, as of today because we did well with our original picks. We know we want Tesla, we did our research there, let's grab the safety bar and hop on. (I have, in fact, bought a few shares of VW with the little bit of investment money I have over and above the Test Fund amount, so that's a valid strategy, I think, "buy some of both").

So, that's our plan. It's 12 noon, CA time. I've been checking the price since I learned it was fading about 2 hours ago and it's still trending down. If it doesn't turn decisively upward in the next 45 minutes, we'll put in our order just before the closing bell.

Oops. What money are we using? Pinterest, TelaDoc, and Zoom are our flattest positions, and though we weren't really expecting absolutely instantaneous results from them, I think, when we're following this philosophy of catching waves, perhaps we should bet on the move we see over the move we're waiting to see. We also have this $2,000 reserved for IPOs, but I don't see super exciting prospects in the next month, so let's get it in the game. That's $4,500 we'll shop with.

Ok, $677 and I'm seeing a flattening trend. 6 shares is just over $4,000, so I'm going to go for it and sell some of the penny stock too. Verb has actually retreated some, and Luokung Tech, a Chinese EV play, has picked up 40% since we bought it. I want to see what happens with it, so I'll buy that out of the fund with my other money and I can still report what happens back here, though the numbers won't count to or against the fund record anymore.

That means I've bought 7 shares of Tesla, the price was $677.49, $4,742.45 in total. Proceeds from sales are: Pinterest $517.16; Teladoc $994.25; Zoom $1,022.85; Luokung $145.00; Verb $86. Total proceeds, $2,725.26. I've lost the precise amount of the IPO reserve, but it was roughly $2,005.00. $4,742.45 minus $4,730.26 means we still owe twelve dollars, which we can add to our Tesla loss of $54.37, so it comes to $66.56 down, with assets at cost basis of $11,987.55 and closing valuation of $12,699.94, a gain of $712.39, which means that we could sell everything we have purchased and end with a profit of $645.83.